SALDRU people

The project involves collaboration with Prof. Rhys Jenkins from the University of East Anglia. Local participants include Francois Steenkamp (PhD intern), Neil Balchin (PhD student) and Ntuthuko Tsokodibane (Masters student).



This project analyses the impact of Chinese competition on South African manufacturing. The project is structured in two parts:

  1. The first part of the project considers the impacts of bilateral trade with China on the domestic economy in terms of employment, wages, output, productivity and prices. This aspect of the project therefore analyses the channels through which Chinese competition may affect employment and consumer welfare in South Africa.
  2. The second part of the project analyses the impact of Chinese competition in third markets on South African exports of manufactures.  A key objective of this section is to determine the extent to which South African exports (at product and regional level) been negatively (substitution effect) or positively (complementary effect) affected by Chinese competition?



Chinese competition and the restructuring of South African manufacturing

DEV Research Briefing (August 2012).

The impact of Chinese import penetration on the South African manufacturing sector

Lawrence Edwards and Rhys Jenkins (2013). South African Foreign Policy Initiative.


SALDRU working papers

Is China "crowding out" South African exports of manufacturers?

Rhys Jenkins and Lawrence Edwards (September 2013).


Journal articles

The margins of export competition: A new approach to evaluating the impact of China on South African exports to Sub-Saharan Africa

Lawrence Edwards and Rhys Jenkins (2013). Journal of Policy Modeling. 


Competition from China ‘cut $900m off SA trade’

BDLive | 31 August 2013

China flagCompetition from Chinese products has led to the loss of thousands of jobs in South Africa’s factories and deprived the country of about $900m in trade with the rest of Africa, according to new research from a collaboration between Lawrence Edwards from the University of Cape Town and Rhys Jenkins from the University of East Anglia. It indicates that Chinese competition may be one of the reasons South Africa’s manufacturing sector has shrunk so sharply since China became a member of the World Trade Organisation in 2001. Read more...


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