Linked administrative data unlocks new insights about education pathways in South Africa

South Africa has made significant progress in expanding access to education over the past three decades. More learners are completing secondary school, and increasing numbers are entering higher education. Yet it remains unclear whether this expansion has translated into meaningful improvements in student success and labour market outcomes. There is also a limited understanding of how any such changes have unfolded and for whom they have occurred. This is partly because existing data traditionally provide only an aggregate snapshot of enrolment, funding, or graduation at a point in time. In contrast, high-frequency individual-level data provides a disaggregated view of the multiple pathways that students can take as they move through the education system.

Recent advances in linking administrative data, including a growing willingness on the part of government departments to share these data, are beginning to change this. By connecting records from the school system, higher education institutions, and student financial aid, it is now possible to follow the same students over time – from school into university and through to completion. This creates a system-wide, longitudinal view of education pathways, allowing us to see not just who enters the system but where they come from, how they progress, where they fall out, and how policy changes shape trajectories. 

Within the Siyaphambili Initiative at SALDRU, linked data infrastructure has been developed through a long-standing collaboration with the Council on Higher Education (CHE), bringing together data from the National Senior Certificate (NSC), the Higher Education Management Information System (HEMIS), and the National Student Financial Aid Scheme (NSFAS). More recently, this work has been extended through collaborations with National Treasury, UNU-WIDER, and SA-TIED to link education data to administrative tax records, opening up new opportunities to connect education pathways to labour market outcomes. Several insights from our work illustrate the value of this approach.

The expansion of NSFAS has been one of the most significant policy changes in the post-school system, aimed at improving access for students from poorer backgrounds. Using NSC-HEMIS-NSFAS linked data in a collaborative project between SALDRU and the Ali Mazrui Centre for Higher Education Studies (AMCHES) led by Sean Muller, we see that this expansion has indeed increased access, particularly among students from lower-income schools (Figure 1). However, the data also show that these gains have not been matched by improvements in academic performance or completion rates (not shown). Students are entering the system in greater numbers, but many continue to struggle to progress and graduate. This suggests that while financial constraints are important, they are not the only barriers to success.

Figure 1: Change in school quintile distribution and average NSC mark by university entrance cohort

Source: Authors’ adaptation from Branson, Kerr and Muller (forthcoming) in Branson and Whitelaw (2025): Post-School Education and Training Policies - From 1994 to Now

A related insight comes from work on Extended Curriculum Programmes (ECPs), which are designed to support students who enter university from academically disadvantaged backgrounds. These programmes typically reduce course loads in the first year and provide additional academic support. By using linked data to compare outcomes for students from similar backgrounds who did and did not enrol in ECPs (an approach that has not previously been applied comprehensively) and by mapping ECP provision across the system, the analysis provides new evidence on their effectiveness. The results show that ECP students do experience slower, more supported progression early on. However, this does not translate into higher overall completion rates. In many cases, students spend longer in the system without a corresponding increase in the likelihood of graduating. 

Another area where linked data has been particularly valuable is in understanding the production of Science, Engineering and Technology (SET) graduates. South Africa faces ongoing concerns about shortages in these fields, which are critical for economic growth and innovation. Figure 2 illustrates the narrowness of the SET pipeline in public universities: just 4% of the 2016 NSC cohort graduated with an SET qualification six years after matric (19 874 SET graduates of 493 718 matriculants). Our work shows that these challenges cannot be understood by focusing on universities alone. Constraints emerge earlier, at the point of subject choice (grade 10) and final performance in the NSC exam, particularly in mathematics and science. These early patterns shape who is able to enter SET fields and influence progression, persistence, and completion within the field.

Figure 2: Example of the public university SET pipeline from school-exit to university completion

Source: Whitelaw and Branson (2026): From school exit to degree completion: Gender differences along the SET pipeline in South Africa

These data also reveal important gender dynamics. Female students are increasingly outperforming male students in overall school achievement and university access, yet remain under-represented in SET fields. At the same time, recent trends in school performance and subject choices suggest that this gap is narrowing and may even reverse in the future. This has important implications for how we think about the future supply of SET graduates and reinforces the need for interventions across the full education pipeline.

Beyond these system-level patterns, linked administrative data also allows us to examine how higher education contributes to social mobility. By connecting students’ schooling backgrounds (including the socioeconomic characteristics of their schools) to their higher education outcomes, we assess the extent to which the system catalyses student success (Figure 3). The full paper detailing this study shows that while access has expanded, substantial differences remain across institutions and fields of study in the extent to which students from poorer schools are able to complete qualifications, especially those associated with strong labour market outcomes. In other words, where students enrol, what they study, and whether they successfully complete their studies all matter for upward mobility.

Figure 3: Share and number of students from school quintiles 1-3 that graduate in minimum time plus 1 years, by institution

Source: Branson and Whitelaw (2026): Catalysing Social Mobility through Student Success

The next frontier of this work lies in linking education data – including that from other parts of the system such as TVET colleges – directly to individuals’ labour market outcomes. Through our ongoing work with National Treasury, UNU-WIDER and SA-TIED, basic education records are being linked directly to administrative tax records for the first time. This linkage incorporates race and socioeconomic information (proxied by school attended) into tax administrative data, creating new opportunities to analyse the returns to education in South Africa. This includes estimating the returns to different types of NSC passes by race and gender, and examining how returns evolve over time.

The sorts of questions we have been able to address using linked data sources point to a shift in how education systems can be studied and understood. Linked administrative data provides a platform not only for describing the system, but also for ongoing monitoring, allowing policymakers to engage more directly with the processes that shape the success of education systems. The value of these data ultimately lies in the timely, efficient, and cost-effective insights that they provide, alongside the size and scale of the data, which allows for heterogeneous effects of educational policies and practices to be investigated. As South Africa continues to invest in expanding and transforming its education system, the ability to sustainably and accurately track students’ outcomes over time will become increasingly important.

References

Branson, N., Kerr, A., & Muller, S. (forthcoming). Towards equity in post-secondary education outcomes: What can we learn from a large-scale change to state financial aid in South Africa? (Report No. TBC). Council on Higher Education (CHE). Cape Town.

Branson, N., & Whitelaw, E. (2025). Post-School Education and Training Policies in South Africa: From 1994 to now. ERSA Working Paper Series: Policy Paper 34.

Branson, N., & Whitelaw, E. (forthcoming). Catalysing social mobility through student success. UNU-WIDER/SA-TIED Working Paper No. 723 (and forthcoming CHE Report).

Branson, N., & Whitelaw, E. (2026). Extended Curriculum Programmes and Student Trajectories in South African Higher Education. Cape Town: SALDRU, UCT. SALDRU Report Series No. 26/01.

Whitelaw, E., & Branson, N. (2026): From school exit to degree completion: Gender differences along the SET pipeline in South Africa. Cape Town: SALDRU, UCT. SALDRU Working Paper No. 323.