South Africa’s higher education sector has experienced significant shifts over the last three decades. Changes in student composition, funding structures, and support programs have aimed at expanding access and success among historically disadvantaged groups. The impact of these changes on educational outcomes and social mobility, however, remain under-explored, especially at the intersection of student background, subject and discipline choice, and institutional support, (e.g. Extended Curriculum Programmes).
This research aims to utilise a unique matched administrative dataset – linking National Senior Certificate (NSC) results with public 2012 to 2022 university data from the Higher Education Management Information System (HEMIS) – to provide new insights into the trajectories of South African students within the higher education system. By examining factors such as school background, school subject choice, NSFAS funding receipt, and enrolment in Extended Curriculum Programmes (ECPs), this study will contribute to understanding the extent to which higher education equalises opportunities and fosters social mobility.
The analysis will focus on three main areas: (1) the changing composition of university students by school quintile and subject choice, (2) the effectiveness of ECPs in supporting student success (graduation), and (3) the broader role of higher education in promoting social mobility.
The Principal Investigator (PI) for this project is Dr Nicola Branson, Associate Professor in SALDRU within the School of Economics at the University of Cape Town. She and Dr Emma Whitelaw, a postdoctoral fellow in SALDRU, form the core project team, with Mercy Alonso providing research assistance. Kauthar Hoossen (supervised by Emma) and Sandra Oguntimirin (supervised by Nicola and Haroon Moolla) are completing their honours and master’s theses on related topics.