Youth unemployment and the search for meaningful pathways to employment

A lot of debate is taking place about South Africa’s unemployment statistics at the moment [1], and while it is good to critically question what we see in the numbers, debates such as these may not be the most useful when trying to think through what can be done differently to better support people’s endeavours to create sustainable livelihoods for themselves. Rather than trying to write another think piece on whether or not the numbers are accurate, this article reflects on what the Quarterly Labour Force Survey Data tells us about young people who remain disconnected from education or employment, and how these findings relate to the narratives of young people and their lived realities.

Statistics South Africa’s first Quarter of 2025 statistical release presents a bleak picture of the (un)employment situation in the country, and presented a particularly dire situation for young people: 34% of all youth aged 15-24 in the country are not in employment, education or training (NEET), representing over 3,5 million youth who remain disconnected from both the education system and the labour market.

The Youth and Social Policy team at SALDRU conducts an annual, in-depth analysis of the profile of this cohort of youth: it is well-known that youth who are NEET are not a homogenous group, and we aim to stay on top of possible changes in the composition of the group. This enables us to accurately inform policy-makers and practitioners working to support these young people. Looking back over the past decade, this year’s analysis reveals a number of worrying trends.

Figure 1 shows how the NEET rate in South Africa has seen a steady increase over the past decade – from 29% in 2015 to a staggering 34% in 2025. The analysis of sub-categories in the cohort also shows an increase in unemployed youth who have been searching for work for extended periods of time, alongside an increase in the share of young people who have completed their final high school year (matric), or higher levels of education (Figure 2). The data points to the efforts of young people to complete higher levels of education and actively engage with job search, but also indicates consistently insufficient labour market absorption rates.

Long-term searching unemployment (for one year or more) among the cohort has become much more entrenched. Figure 3 clearly shows the significant increase in long-term searching unemployed youth, rising from 40% in 2015 to over 50% in 2025.

Are these numbers incorrect, and do they overlook young people’s engagement in the informal economy, as suggested in the latest debates? The QLFS captures employment in both the formal and informal sectors. As such, employment figures reported by Statistics South Africa include informal sector work. In 2025, 1,017,758 youths were employed, and - excluding those in private households - 24.6% of them were working in the informal sector. Most of these informal sector jobs were in elementary occupations (30.4%), service and sales roles such as shop and market work (30.2%), and crafts and related trades (14.2%).

Unemployed youth, a subset of the NEET cohort reported on here, are those who indicate in their survey responses that they are willing to work, available to work, and actively searching for work (the narrow definition of unemployment) or have given up looking for work (having become discouraged). In the first quarter of 2025, over 67% of young people who were NEET – or a total of 2,366,610 youth - indicated that they wanted to work and were available to work; the vast majority of them were actively searching for work – many for extended periods of time (a year or more).

Some of the critiques on the unemployment statistics argue that much of the rhetoric around unemployment is driven by the desire to present people as destitute or passive. Our counter-argument would be that the data clearly show a strong desire - including among young people - to build more stable and sustainable livelihoods. These numbers do not speak to a passive sitting around and waiting. The large number of actively searching youth points to their commitment and resilience to connect to opportunities, even in a job-restricted environment. Decades of qualitative research has indicated the extent of young people’s agency and resilience in trying to stitch together independent lives for themselves [2]; this is also reflected in quantitative analyses that have consistently pointed at young people churning from one short-term opportunity to another [3] – but what the evidence also shows is that there is little forward movement in the pathways of young people who take up one short-term training, internship, hustle, or more formal job opportunity after the other.

Working closely with young people, it is impossible not to notice the incredible cost of this churn for youth themselves, their families and for opportunity holders. Each new opportunity requires a reinvestment of time and resources that are already scarce and that take place in the absence of a guarantee that this investment will, in fact, lead to a more stable position afterwards. The never-ending search for stability without clarity on how to attain it leads to exhaustion for both those in long-term exclusion and those churning between short-term jobs. 

In this context, the Basic Package of Support (BPS) offers a response that is both person-centred and system-aware. The model recognises the complexity of youth transitions from school to work, or from one opportunity to another, and the resultant necessity of providing tailored support that is accessible whenever it is needed. BPS coaches work with young people to understand their individual starting points, goals, and constraints. They then co-develop personalised support plans that connect young people to relevant services - including psychosocial support, documentation, skills development, and economic opportunities – but only to the extent that they fit a young person’s profile and desired pathways.

By doing so, BPS reduces the inefficiencies and frustrations associated with ‘the churn’. It avoids young people cycling through disconnected programmes or opportunities without moving closer to their aspirations. By offering integrated, sequenced support, BPS helps young people build the capabilities they need for independent adulthood - whether through employment, further learning, entrepreneurship, or a combination of these.

As sites across the country have celebrated Youth Month, BPS teams have highlighted the successes of young people who, when meaningfully supported, are able to chart clear and sustainable pathways forward. These narratives offer insight into what is possible when we address not only the symptoms but the systems that perpetuate youth exclusion. Read narratives of BPS youth here.

 

References:

[1] See Gerrit Fourie’s statement on incorrect unemployment numbers here: https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/economy/2025-06-10-capitec-ceo-argues-sas-jobless-rate-as-low-as-10/#google_vignette  (subscription required);

Alongside Statistics South Africa’s response here: https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/south-africa-statistics-chief-defends-jobless-data-calculations-2025-06-11;

And a response from UCT’s Development and Policy Research Unit here: https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/2025-06-17-haroon-bhorat-getting-the-numbers-right-on-the-informal-economy/ (subscription required).

[2] Baldry, K., Graham, L., & De Lannoy, A. (2019). The agency and resilience of NEET youth and what we can do to support them. Evidence from a synthesis of qualitative research with young people in South Africa. Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit Working Paper No. 253. Cape Town: SALDRU, University of Cape Town & Centre for Social Development in Africa, University of Johannesburg. https://www.opensaldru.uct.ac.za/bitstream/handle/11090/968/2019_253_Saldruwp.pdf?sequence=3

Newman, K. and De Lannoy, A. (2014) After Freedom, the rise of a post-apartheid generation in democratic South Africa. Boston, US: Beacon Press.

[3] Ingle, K., Mlatsheni, C. (2017). The extent of churn in the South African youth labour market: Evidence from NIDS 2008-2015. Cape Town: SALDRU, UCT. (SALDRU Working Paper Number 201/ NIDS Discussion Paper 2016/17). https://opensaldru.uct.ac.za/bitstream/handle/11090/884/2017_201_Saldruwp.pdf?sequence=1